Saturday, July 15, 2017

GISS June down 0.19°C from May.

GISS was down from 0.88°C in May to 0.69°C in June.The GISS report is here; they say it was the fourth warmest June on record. The drop was somewhat more than the 0.12°C in TempLS. The most recent month that was cooler than that was November 2014.

The overall pattern was similar to that in TempLS. The big feature was cold in Antarctica, to which both GISS and TempLS msh are sensitive, more so than HADCRUT or NOAA. Otherwise, as with TempLS, it was warm in Europe, extending through Africa and the Middle East, and also through the Americas. Apart from Antarctica, the main cold spot was NW Russia.

So far, July is also cold, although with some signs of warming a little from June. As usual, I will compare the GISS and previous TempLS plots below the jump.

Here is GISS

And here is the TempLS spherical harmonics plot


  1. From I expected 0.73 mid month and 0.70 at the end. Now I would expect 0.73 for GISS Jul17. The Antarctic colling in Jun and Jul is strong in the last years, which reduces global mean.

  2. Test comment!
    I tried to post my new prediction in Prospects for 2017, after the first comment here, but it fails, after pressing Publish nothing happens, no rechapta or so.
    If this comment appears, it is strange. If not ...

    1. It works, I con still comment here, but not in the Prospects for 2017. Strange.

      So I try to post my update here.

      I update my prediction using data up to Jun17.
      J-D17 0.89+-0.05
      JJA17 0.76+-0.08
      SON17 0.91+-0.14
      DJF18 0.85+-0.18
      MAM18 0.91+-0.18

    2. Uli,
      It's a Moyhu issue. I had trouble with a spammer, so I set old posts to require moderation. I have released your comment there (just 1). I have set the cutoff date back so any post in the last year should now be OK to comment on.

    3. Uli - so you have 2017 2nd warmest. That's still my gut feeling.

    4. Nick, thanks. Also for the explanation. I tried to post several times. I was not sure if I did something wrong, or it's only a temporary rechapta problem, so something else.

      JCH, it's not sure. Using Jul temp up to now form KH I expect 0.75 for Jul and get 0.88 for the year 2017 for GISS. Very close to 2015.

    5. Yes, it could easily slide below. On the other hand, a lot ENSO models backed off a bit on the collapse off 3.4. Either way, it's a very warm year and the internet claims that temps are back to pause levels are ridiculous.